COVID-19 Modelling
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) also released their own modelling. It's very readable and echoes a lot of what Imperial have said. Some interesting points:
School closures have very little impact. In fact, they might result in elderly relatives spending more time caring for children. If a child has one more contact with an elderly relative a week (due to school closure) — it could entirely eliminate the benefit of closing schools.
The future of social distancing measures may be more effective on a regional not national basis. Nationwide 'lockdowns' mean that the interventions arrive too early in some counties, and too late in others. It will be interesting to see how this affects adherence if used.
There's actually an ideal time to initiate a 'lockdown' — and it's not straight away. The first graph shows the impact of locking down straight away, the second after two weeks, then four weeks and then eight weeks (exact number of weeks are not known — these are just estimates)
An Interesting Study
All the best,
Mustafa